September 24, 2024 • Market Updates

September is coming to a close, meaning Q4 is just around the corner. And FSL is eager to help our clients navigate the ups and downs of the Q4 market. See our expectations below:

Interest Rates Decrease and Inflation Drops

October signals the true beginning of retail season. The approaching holidays means consumer spending will be up. 

With the .5% interest cut announced last week, credit card bills and mortgages will soon be easier to pay. Consumers may very well take those savings and get to spending. Anticipate a more robust retail season than previous years with interest rates down and inflation easing. 

Retail Season Begins
  • Expect the usual increase in consumer spending across retail, food, and eCommerce sectors.
  • Higher freight volumes to keep up with consumer spending will mean tighter capacity constraints during vulnerable times such as end-of-month or weekends.
  • Holiday closures are not just for clients. Carriers will either wish to stay at home or offer spot rates to move loads over the holidays.
    • Prepare for increased tender rejections and higher spot rates during these times.
Adverse Seasonal Weather 

Keep a weather app nearby because winter with all its inclement weather is nearing. Luckily, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts a milder winter for us.

Winter Overview
  • Winter will have warmer temperatures and less snowfall than previous years.
  • Rain storms will affect Florida, the Deep South, and Southern California.
  • Heavy snowfall in Central and Southern Appalachia, Western Ohio Valley, and the Rockies.

With adverse weather conditions comes tender rejections and spot rate increases. Be sure to prepare for such weather with carriers and brokers. Seasonal, weekly, or monthly rates could be useful to ensure capacity and prevent sudden rate spikes. 

Truck Transportation Employment Dips

The truck transportation industry continues to see businesses shutter and payrolls reduced. With this comes tighter truck capacity.

  • Tender rejection will increase, particularly in high volume lanes and markets.
  • Spot rates will be driven up due to:
    • Further deadheads
    • Competition with increasing contracted volumes
    • Less driver availability
Possible Labor Strikes at the Ports

Longshore unions at the ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast are still in negotiation with employers as we near the October 1st deadline. This means ports from Maine to Texas could see a strike soon if terms are not met. 

  • Surcharges are already being applied in anticipation of the strike. Even if the strike doesn’t take place, expect a holdover of the surcharges in the days after October 1st before rates regulate again. 
  • This summer saw record-high inventories shipped to the West Coast. If the ILA strike occurs, the West Coast ports will reign supreme during the holiday shopping season, increasing volumes out of California and the Pacific Northwest. 


We’ve had an incredible 2024 at FSL and anticipate that to continue into Quarter 4. Join in on the success with us, and let us help you navigate Q4’s market.

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